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First, a note · assumptions & caveats
These are informed estimates — real data will refine them
🎯
Estimates, not actuals
Average prices, the tier mix, starting volume, seller counts and subscription take-up are all reasonable guesses — not measured facts yet.
🛠️
A tool, not a promise
The model is built to be adjusted. Change any input in the spreadsheet and the whole picture updates. Use it to test scenarios, not to predict certainty.
📡
Real data will lead
Once Chairlift launches, actual sales, fees, churn and costs replace the guesses. We'll revisit these numbers with live data in the first few months.
Biggest assumptions to validate after launch: the price-tier mix, 100 items/week starting volume, 10%/month growth, 500 sellers with ~15% / 5% on paid tiers, the $15k build, and the monthly cost lines. Treat every figure here as a starting hypothesis.
01
Revenue
How money comes in — a transaction fee on every sale, plus recurring seller subscriptions.
The basic engine
Every time something sells, Chairlift keeps a small cut
The cut is $5 or 10% of the price — whichever is bigger. Small items pay the $5 minimum; pricier items pay 10%.
🧦
Small items
Sells for $15
$5
the $5 minimum applies
🧥
Puff jacket
Sells for $75
$7.50
10% of $75
🛒
Stroller
Sells for $150
$15
10% of $150
What actually sells
Most sales are small — so the average cut is about $6.50 per item
Average item price: $46.50. Our average cut: $6.50 — roughly 14 cents of every dollar that changes hands.
From the model · Price Tier Mix
Where the $6.50 average cut comes from
Price tier
Avg price
% of items
Fee / item
Effective take
Low — used clothing, small items
$15
40%
$5.00
33%
Mid — outfits, bundles
$35
30%
$5.00
14%
Upper — quality gear, shoes
$75
20%
$7.50
10%
Premium — bikes, strollers, furniture
$150
10%
$15.00
10%
Weighted average / total
$46.50
100%
$6.50
14%
Fee / item = MAX($5, 10% × price) · Weighted avg = SUMPRODUCT(price, % of items). Yellow cells are the adjustable inputs on the Model tab.
The revenue · before any costs
Start with the top line — every sale earns a fee
433
items / month
100 / week × 4.33
× $6.50
average fee
weighted across price tiers
$2,817
fee revenue / month
$33,800 / year
That's the whole top line at today's volume: $20,150 of gear changes hands (GMV) and Chairlift keeps about 14¢ per dollar. Pure revenue — no costs yet.
The revenue · a second stream
Layer in a second revenue stream: seller subscriptions
Transaction fees$2,817 / mo
Subscription MRR$2,025 / mo
up to $4,842 / mo
Two revenue streams, still before any costs. Subscribers pay lower fees in exchange for the flat monthly price, so the realistic combined figure lands nearer $3,766/mo — we'll unpack that tradeoff once costs are in. The $2,025 MRR comes from 500 sellers, ~15% on Pro ($14) and ~5% on Power ($39).
Model 2 — recommended
Keep the item fees, and let serious sellers subscribe
Sellers who list a lot pay a flat monthly price and get a better deal on fees. Casual sellers change nothing.
🙂
Casual
Free
standard $5 / 10% fee ~80% of sellers
🏔️
Pro Store
$14 / mo
fees drop to just 5%, no minimum ~15% of sellers
⚡
Power Seller
$39 / mo
fees drop to just 3%, no minimum ~5% of sellers
With 500 sellers, that's $2,025 of guaranteed income every month — before a single item sells.
02
Expenses
What it costs to build and run — a one-time build, plus monthly hosting, development, and marketing.
Now layer in the costs · the expense model
Build it once, run it monthly, grow it over time
🔨
Build — one-time
$15,000
Platform development, paid up front. Not a monthly cost — it's investment, recovered as the business turns profitable.
⚙️
Run — every month
~$1,072 / mo
Hosting & tools $250 · payment processing ~$714 · support & labels ~$108. Steady; grows slowly with volume.
📈
Grow — scales
$1,000 / mo
Marketing, per 100 items/wk — plus development that scales with revenue (below).
Ongoing development scales with revenue & feature needs
$750 / mo
Launch · solid MVP
~$2,000 / mo
Growth · rising volume
up to $10,000 / mo
Scale · competitive features
The next slide's −$6 / mo = fee revenue − every monthly cost (now including $250 hosting, $750 development, $1,000 marketing). The $15k build is the only real upfront capital — operating breaks even from the start. Development starts light and grows only as revenue supports it.
03
Profit projections
Putting it together — the P&L today, the path to break-even, and the 12-month outlook.
Model 1 — item fees only
At 100 items a week, fees alone essentially cover the bills
Money in (fees)$2,817 / mo
Money out (hosting + development + marketing + processing)$2,823 / mo
−$6 / month
Costs: $250/mo hosting & tools, $750/mo development, $1,000/mo marketing that grows with sales, plus payment processing on each order.
From the model · Profit & Loss
The monthly P&L, line by line
Line item
Per month
How it's calculated
Items sold
433
100 / week × 4.33
GMV (gross merchandise value)
$20,150
items × $46.50 avg price
Platform fee revenue
$2,817
items × $6.50 avg fee
Payment processing
−$714
2.9% of GMV + $0.30 / order
Other variable cost
−$108
$0.25 / item
Hosting & tools
−$250
servers, domain, SaaS tools
Ongoing development
−$750
scales with fee revenue ($750 → $10,000)
Advertising & marketing
−$1,000
$1k per 100 items / week
Net profit
−$6
revenue − total costs
Break-even now lands at ~101 items / week — about today's volume — at $2.29 contribution per item after processing and marketing.
Model 1 — the good news
On fees alone, we're already at break-even — about 100 sales a week
Where we are today100 / week
Break-even point~101 / week
We're essentially there today. Each sale contributes about $2.30 after payment processing and its share of marketing, so every additional sale from here drops toward profit.
Side by side · same 100 items/week
Subscriptions add 34% more revenue — and turn breakeven into real profit
Item fees only
$2,817
revenue / month
−$72
result / year · essentially breakeven
Recommended
Fees + subscriptions
$3,766
revenue / month · $2,025 subs + $1,741 fees
+$11,320
result / year · $11,400 better — solidly profitable
We give up some fee income (subscribers pay lower fees) — but the steady subscription income more than makes up for it.
From the model · Subscription scenarios
Three ways to price subscriptions, monthly
Monthly
Baseline no subs
A · discounted fee realistic
B · add-on optimistic
C · fee-free subs pay $0
Subscription MRR
$0
$2,025
$2,025
$2,025
Transaction fee revenue
$2,817
$1,741
$2,817
$1,268
Total revenue
$2,817
$3,766
$4,842
$3,293
Net profit / month
−$6
+$943
+$2,019
+$470
Net profit / year
−$72
+$11,320
+$24,228
+$5,638
Annual gain vs baseline
—
+$11,392
+$24,300
+$5,710
Scenario A is what we recommend: subscribers pay a lower fee (5% / 3%, no minimum), and steady MRR more than covers the fee we give up. Columns come straight from the Subscription tab.
Why this is the right move
Think retainer vs. project work
📅
Predictable income
Fee income only arrives when items sell. Subscriptions arrive on the 1st of every month, like a retainer.
❤️
Loyalty built in
A seller paying monthly has committed to the platform. Subscribers are the sellers who stick around.
📦
More inventory
Lower fees reward listing more. More listings means more choice for buyers — the flywheel you'd market around.
The road ahead · 12-month projection
Growing sales 10% a month, the engine is profitable from month 2
−$6
M1
+$93
M2
+$203
M3
+$323
M4
+$381
M5
+$444
M6
+$513
M7
+$589
M8
+$673
M9
+$765
M10
+$867
M11
+$979
M12
Monthly result, item fees only, starting at 100 items/week. The only real upfront capital is the $15k build — operating is breakeven from day one and compounds to ~$980 / month by month 12. Subscriptions add roughly $11k / year on top.
The plan in one slide
Keep the fee engine. Add subscriptions. Grow the volume.
1
Fees stay
$5 or 10% per sale — simple, fair, scales with every transaction.
2
Subscriptions launch
Pro $14 / Power $39 with discounted fees. Worth ~$11,400 a year — turning a breakeven business into a clearly profitable one.
3
Marketing drives volume
Marketing spend scales with sales. The core engine is profitable from month 2, and growing 10% a month compounds it to ~$980/month by month 12.